10 years of markets + the midterm effect
What history can teach us about uncertainty, repricing, and opportunity.
2016 to 2025, S&P 500 total return
Up yearDown year
The midterm pattern
Markets often see weak pre-election returns, then a relief rally after uncertainty clears.
Aug 1 to Election Day1.7%
3 months after the midterm5.7%
6 months after the midterm12.4%
Average return, since 1974
95%
Since 1938, the S&P 500 posted price gains in the 12 months following midterm elections 95% of the time.
How a midterm reaches the market
From the ballot to the price.
- Nov. 3 midterms
- Who controls Congress?
- Which bills get heard, amended, funded or blocked?
- EnergyCryptoTaxesDefenseHealthcareAIRegulation
- Corporate earnings + cost of capital + investment
- Markets reprice.
The market is not reacting to politics alone.
It is repricing policy expectations, rates, earnings, and uncertainty.
Want to talk it through?
Book 15 minutes with Jordan.
Historical data is not a guarantee of future results.
Sources: NYU Stern historical returns, Fidelity, Charles Schwab.